JIANGSU GET RECYCLING TECHNOLOGY CO,.LTD.

Plastic waste accounts for about one-tenth of India's total municipal waste. India has an estimated 10 million tons of plastic waste annually, about 60% of which is recycled. Although this proportion is very low, it is still in the top quarter of the world, close to Germany and about twice as large as the United States. About two-thirds of all plastic waste is PE, and one-tenth of it is PET. About 43% of plastic is used for packaging.

This is the background of a new report by Morgan Stanley, which describes the impact of India's efforts to combat plastic waste in its major cities. Over the past two years, India has taken positive measures to reduce plastic waste in these cities: Mumbai, for example, has banned disposable plastics and is a major supporter of the Basel Convention meeting to regulate the flow of plastic waste in developed markets.

In his research summary, Morgan Stanley pointed out that India, like other ASEAN countries, had not banned the import of plastic waste as of August 19, 2019. From this point of view, India was one of the largest importers of plastic waste from the United States in 2018, despite a 43% drop in imports in the first half of 2019, the report said. Lower imports may help improve local plastic collection efficiency, as there are about 40 recyclers in the organizational sector and many recyclers in the non-organizational sector are looking for raw materials. The current rate of return for mechanical recovery is between 8% and 10%.

Despite the decline in imports of plastic waste, India's demand for plastic has grown at an average annual rate of 8% over the past five years. Morgan Stanley commented: "Banning disposable plastics and increasing the content of recyclable plastics may reduce demand growth by about 200 basis points, which is only part of our basic estimate. In India, about 25% of plastic use comes from recyclable materials. India does not allow the recycling of food-grade plastics, and most of the recycled plastics eventually exist in the form of fibers.

According to Morgan Stanley, recycling PET now enjoys a higher profit margin, a 20% premium over raw PET. They said: "We believe that this should help companies get 9% to 10% returns from capacity recovery investments, which will initially be used in the field of mechanical recovery." Reliance, IOCL and Indorama Ventures are the largest plastics producers, and they have announced plans for investment recovery. Indorama Ventures plans to invest $1.5 billion globally to increase recovery capacity by 2023. Reliance recycled 2 billion bottles in 2019, increasing the recycling of polyester garments and road plastics.

The ban could also affect demand growth for naphtha, a key petroleum product used to make all oil-based plastics, the report said. Although Indian oil market companies have low exposure to naphtha, due to their petrochemical integration, about 13% of Reliance's refined products are naphtha. However, Morgan Stanley said that all companies continued to focus on integrating downstream chemicals, such as synthetic rubber and other niche chemicals, to reduce the risk of their product mix.